Use Stud Fees, Breeder Information and Sales Prices to Handicap Horse Races

Here is an angle that is often overlooked in horse racing handicapping. Thoroughbred breeding and sales is a huge business. Thoroughbreds with good confirmation and breeding sell for six and sometimes seven figures.

The people who breed and sell and buy thoroughbreds are very good judges of horse flesh, because they have to be, it's their livelihood. So you can get some valuable clues to a horse's potential by looking at what the horse sold for at auction, who the owner is, and what the stud fee is.

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The first place to look is at the stud fee that was paid to breed the mare who gave birth to the horse, the dam. If you see that a horse actually sold for less than the stud fee, that is a bad sign. It means someone paid more money to produce the horse than the horse sold for.

Here is an example, Opening Page is a 3 year old colt out of the sire, Deputy Wild Cat whose stud fee is a modest ,500. But Opening Page only sold for ,400 at the Ocala Breeders Sale in 2007. That means the breeder, in this case, Newchance Farm in Florida, wanted to sell the foal very quickly and took a very low price. Usually, that's a bad sign.

And now, here is a twist, while this information would usually indicate a horse who is destined for the low priced claiming ranks, after 7 races, Opening Page did manage to win a Maiden Special Weight event at Monmouth on September 10, 2008. He was in against a group of well bred horses who had all sold for more than Opening Page, but were also all less raced.

Apparently, some good conditioning by the trainer, Frank Costa, and good riding by Carlos M. Cruz, along with the extra experience, paid off for Opening Page. But don't expect to see that happen very often, because it won't.

If you see a horse that sold for less than its stud fee, or is owned by the breeder, beware. It may be that the breeder couldn't sell the horse so he or she decided to try to bring it along and get it racing. It may be a horse with problems that the breeder figures will eventually be worked out, but that no other person is willing to deal with. There have been some horse that sold for large figures and then disappointed the owners, but despite the occasional misses, the breeders and buyers are usually good at spotting a "good un." Use that information to pick more winners.

Use Stud Fees, Breeder Information and Sales Prices to Handicap Horse Races

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store.

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